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DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/19 10:50
Corn, Wheat Futures Higher at Midday; Soybeans Lower
Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher at midday Friday; soybean futures are 8
to 11 cents lower; wheat futures are 15 to 22 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher at midday Friday; soybean futures are 8
to 11 cents lower; wheat futures are 15 to 22 cents higher. The U.S. stock
market is weaker with the DOW down 280 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 70
points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mostly higher
with crude up 2.40. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are mixed
with gold $10.00 lower.
CORN:
Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher at midday with light, two-sided trade
so far. Little fresh news and negative spillover from soybeans and energies
easing into the day session help spark a bit of buying. Short-term forecasts
have the center of the belt drier with milder temperatures. Ethanol margins
will continue to be limited by driving demand and seasonal slowdowns with
unleaded futures finding support in recent days to keep blender margins flat
while natural gas remains near the highs, hurting some plants margins. Basis
will be watched to see how much further strength fades, especially with the
board rally and harvest starts in the South with mixed to lower yields and
aflatoxin concerns so far. On the September chart, support is the 20-day moving
average at $6.08 and the upper Bollinger Band is the next round up at $6.38.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 8 to 11 cents lower with trade fading back from the
midweek bounce with flat spread action as crush margins slip on product
weakness and weather remains less threatening nearby with trade finding support
during the day session. Meal is $5.00 to $6.00 lower and oil is 110 to 120
points higher. Biodiesel margins remain positive but narrowing in recent days
with overall crush margins still OK even with the pullback. South America is on
post-harvest footing for shipping with their advantage to persist until
September with nothing on the daily wire so far this week for the U.S., while
the bulk of the U.S. is heading into the start of pod-fill season with less
stressful weather this week temperature-wise with follow-up moisture limited
for most of the west. Basis has been more mixed as we head toward harvest with
a quiet export wire. On the September soybean chart, support is the 20-day
moving average at $14.62, which we remain above, while November has edged back
below the 20-day at $14.08, with the Upper Bollinger Band at $15.51, which we
have faded from as resistance.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 15 to 22 cents higher with KC action leading after the
washout of the last two sessions as trade works to consolidate near the fresh
lows scored Thursday while waiting for further news on Black Sea developments
and spread action versus the row crops. Plains weather looks for better
short-term moisture with deficits needing to be eased ahead of planting for
Oklahoma and Texas, while spring wheat harvest should continue to roll along.
The dollar is back to the highs on interest rate outlooks turning more hawkish
this week, which will likely limit export interest. The KC September chart has
resistance at the 20-day moving average of $8.59, which we broke below
Wednesday, with the fresh lows at $8.07 scored Thursday as support.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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