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DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/11 10:40
Corn Futures Flat-Lower at Midday; Soybeans, Wheat Lower
Corn futures are flat to a penny lower; soybean futures are 1 to 2 cents
lower; wheat futures are 1 to 7 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are flat to a penny lower; soybean futures are 1 to 2 cents
lower; wheat futures are 1 to 7 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is weaker
with the S&P 27 points lower. The U.S. Dollar Index is 20 points higher. The
interest rate products are weaker. Energy trade is mixed with crude 1.70 higher
and natural gas .06 higher. Livestock trade is mostly higher with cattle
leading. Precious metals are firmer with gold 51.50.
CORN:
Corn futures are flat to a penny lower with trade continuing to chop along
ahead of the report as we digest trade news and look for further outside market
spillover. On the report, trade is looking for old crop carryout at 1.347
billion bushels (bb) versus 1.365 bb last month, and new crop yield at 181.1
bushels per acre (bpa) with carryout at 1.733 bb versus 1.750 bb last month.
Ethanol margins should remain steady here short term with unleaded and corn
both holding the range. Short-term weather continues to show moisture for most
with serious heat limited for most as we head deeper into pollination. The
daily wire was quiet again today. Basis looks to remain rangebound short term.
On the September chart, the 20-day at $4.13 is resistance, with the fresh low
at $3.96 1/4 as support.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with choppy action
continuing at the lower end of range pre-report as well. Meal is 1.00 to 2.00
lower and oil 60 to 70 points higher. On the report, trade is looking for old
crop carryout at 359 million bushels (mb) versus 350 mb last month, and new
crop at 305 mb versus 295 mb last month and yield at 52.4 bpa versus 52.5 bpa
last month. Weather should generally remain good for development short term.
Basis will likely remain flat short term. The daily wire saw 219,900 metric
tons (mt) of soybeans sold to Mexico for new crop. On the September chart,
resistance is the 20-day at $10.43, and the fresh low at $9.91 3/4 as support.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 1 to 7 cents lower at midday with trade struggling to
consolidate the Thursday gains going into the weekend as harvest pressure
starts to ease for winter wheat. On the report, trade is looking for 895 mb of
carryout versus 898 mb last month with all wheat production at 1.912 bb versus
1.921 bb last month. The hard red wheat areas should continue to build momentum
harvest wise as we move well past the halfway point with spring wheat drying
back out short term. MATIF wheat is holding through nearby resistance this
morning after the good close on Thursday. On the KC September Chart, resistance
is the 20-day at $5.43, with the lower Bollinger Band at $5.09 as support.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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