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DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/09 10:55
Corn and Soybeans Lower, Wheat Mixed at Midday Monday
Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday, soybeans are 1 to 2 cents
lower, and wheat futures are narrowly mixed.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
The U.S. stock market is firmer at midday with the S&P up 145 points. The
U.S. Dollar Index is 45 points lower. The interest rate products are weaker.
Energy trade is mixed with crude off 3 and natural gas up .17. Livestock trade
is mostly higher with cattle leading. Precious metals are firmer with gold 53
higher.
CORN:
Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday in quiet trade to start the
week with lightly firmer spread action as we head towards the report tomorrow
and some two-sided action so far. On the report, trade is looking for yield at
180.4 BPA vs. 181.2 last month with carryout at 1.842 billion vs. 1.849 last
month. Ethanol margins remain solid for producer and blender even with the
energy pullback which should continue towards midmonth. Basis should continue
to firm seasonally as harvest winds down. The daily wire saw 110,000 metric
tons sold to Mexico with export inspections lightly improved at 905,267 metric
tons with YTD pace at 84%.
Harvest should resume with more open short-term weather as we wind down with
the weekly report expected to be near 85% complete. On the December chart the
20-day at $4.57 is nearby resistance. Chart support is at the $4.30 lower
Bollinger Band and $4.38 1/2 fresh low area.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 1 to 2 cents lower with early strength fading into two
sided day session action. Meal is flat to 1.00 lower and oil is 20 to 30 points
higher. On the report, trade is looking for yield at 53.5 BPA vs. 53.1 BPA last
month, and carryout at 332 million bushels vs. 315 last month. The last stretch
of harvest should resume towards the end of the week as weather opens back up
with the weekly report expected to be at 95%. The daily export wire was quiet
with weekly export inspections softer but still good at 1.897 million metric
tons with YTD pace at 158%. Basis should start to firm as shipping and
processors chew through the harvest bushels. On the January contract support is
the fresh low at $11.84 with resistance to the 20-day at 12.44.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are narrowly mixed with trade staying oversold at the low end
of the range with little fresh news to excite buyers short term. On the report,
trade with looking for 744 million bushels vs. 740 last month. Open weather
should allow the remaining winter wheat to continue to establish with weekly
crop progress likely to show good to excellent moving towards 50% as emergence
catches up to average. Matif wheat is lightly higher. Weekly export inspections
improved at bit at 248,536 metric tons with YTD pace at 64%. On the KC December
chart resistance is the 20-day at $6.68. Chart support is the fresh low at
$6.22.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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